Betting Turf, By Ts - Week 11 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
With a couple huge Thursday showdowns between top 10 teams, the BCS will be rounded into shape following week 11. I like both Baylor and Oregon to win Thursday but the lines are too high to feel good about the pick ATS. Nevertheless, there are plenty of other tasty options this week as I trudge my way back to a .500 record and respectability.
Auburn -7
Tennessee +7
I have discussed the Tennessee Volunteer schedule at length. This is the final week of their death march towards freedom. It started September 14 at #2 Oregon and continued for eight weeks. Including their game this Saturday against Auburn, the two month stretch saw Tennessee face seven ranked opponents, five of whom were ranked in the top 10 the day of the game. The Vols salvaged one win out of this mess yet are sputtering down the home stretch, losing their last two by a combined score of 76-13. Auburn is not elite; they are at least a touchdown better than Tennessee at this point though.
Kansas State +3
Texas Tech -3
The mini-theme of week 11 seems to be undervalued losers. Sure, Texas Tech lost a couple in a row here but those were against good teams. Are they really that much worse of a football team than they were at the end of October? The spread reversed too far with the Red Raiders only giving three at home.
Missouri -14
Kentucky +14
Sure Missouri lost a heartbreaker the other week but they rebounded nicely last time out and should be favored by more than two scores against Kentucky. Similarly to the Texas Tech situation, how high would this spread have been on October 25? So because Connor Shaw led South Carolina on a tremendous overtime comeback, Kentucky is suddenly better off in this game? It doesn't make sense.
Houston +10.5
Central Florida -10.5
Okay, well not all games can be finding undervalued losers. We also need to locate overvalued winners; enter Central Florida. The Knights have had a fine season but this spread is too high because they managed to top Louisville by three points just short of a month ago. Houston and Central Florida should be a rather even game; a home field advantage has to be considered but no home field is worth double digits.
Texas -6.5
West Virginia +6.5
Texas has played a season similar to that of the USC Trojans, just slower paced for the Midwest crowd. Everyone thought they were good to start the season and a dominating week one win did little to dissuade that. Back to back losses followed, both out of conference, against average competition. Texas was labeled dead. And then the wins started to pile up. The Longhorns have won five straight since Big 12 action began. This made the Texas story boring; they aren't a bad team but they aren't great either. However, their opponent, West Virginia, is bad, which is fortunate for Texas. A solid win last week not withstanding, WVU has had spurts this season where they've looked like one of the worst football teams west of the Atlantic Ocean. An okay team should beat a poor one by a touchdown.
UCLA -1
Arizona +1
Another undervalued loser, UCLA, may be the most surprising of them all. So they lost on the road to Stanford and Oregon in back to back weeks. There's no shame in that. Are they a much more diminished football team because they lost to two of the best 10 teams in the country? It seems foolish to think so. This spread would have been over a touchdown if UCLA played Arizona three games ago so take the Bruins and be glad you only have to give one point in doing so.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Virginia Tech +6.5
Miami -6.5
Miami looked pitiful against Florida State but everyone expected them to. Miami also lost their running back, Duke Johnson, for the season. Now they face one of the best defenses in the country in Virginia Tech. But the Hokies are repressed by an anemic offense led by a turnover-prone quarterback. Logan Thomas has thrown six interceptions in just the last two games. A Miami downward spiral would not surprise me; a Virginia Tech offensive collapse of epic proportions would not surprise me; a comfortable win in either direction is in play; I have no idea which team, if either, is even any good. Stay away!
2013 Record Against the Spread: 25-25
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Florida State fans will just for fun
