Betting Turf - Week 4 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
Losing the UCLA – Texas game is one thing. Brett Hundley, UCLA’s Heisman-hopeful quarterback and best player, went down and did not return. The Bruins still managed to win with Jerry Neuheisel behind center, which probably speaks to how much better of a team they are than the Longhorns. Alas, the victory was not enough in this instance.
Picks like that can be written off as fluky and unlucky. What is happening with the likes of the USCs though is harder to stomach. It comes from the lack of information and general confusion that exists this early in the season.
South Carolina got walloped on the defensive side by both Texas A&M and East Carolina. This could have been a sign of the Gamecocks’ demise. Instead, those teams might have some of the best offenses in the entire country after seeing how ECU was able to dominate Virginia Tech’s vaunted defense for most of that game. So maybe South Carolina isn’t as bad as we thought.
And maybe Southern California isn’t as good as we thought. The Stanford victory even seemed fortuitous at the time. The Cardinal gave that game away with their mistakes, and it wasn’t the actual return of the old school USC.
These early weeks are when we learn what is real and what isn’t. Hopefully we don’t miss too many picks while doing so.
Clemson +20
Florida State -20
Here is a perfect example of why timing is everything when picking games. With news just off the wire that Florida State is benching quarterback Jameis Winston for the first half of the Clemson game, now is the best time to pounce before this spread drops. If Winston had been scheduled to play the entire contest, three touchdowns seems a tad high but not enough to back the Tigers. Now, with FSU’s most important player out for 30 minutes, the Seminoles will have a hard time covering such a large gap. This Clemson team may not be on the level of past years, but it is still talented enough to hang with FSU minus half-a-Jameis.
Mississippi State +10
LSU -10
On the road in a hostile environment is not the ideal place to back an unproven squad. MSU has yet to face an elite foe. This is more a bet against LSU’s ability to blow the Bulldogs out. The Tigers struggled in their only real contest of the season so far, week one against Wisconsin. Yet even in the cupcake games, LSU is getting poor play out of the quarterback position. The running game has carried them. Fortunately for Mississippi State, the Bulldogs are 11th in the nation in rush defense and are allowing just 2.34 yards per carry.
Virginia +14
BYU -14
This may be the best BYU team in a long while. Quarterback Taysom Hill is lighting up opponents through the air and on the ground. However, this may also be the best Virginia team in just as long a time period. The Cavaliers hung with UCLA week one and toppled Louisville last week. Their defense seems legit, and they should have just enough on offense to stay within two touchdowns against the Cougars.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 6-5
