Betting Turf - Week 12 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
There was an interesting turn in this week’s edition of the College Football Playoff standings, one that was brought up here last week. The question of would the committee jump a team with one loss over an undefeated team if the resume appeared better was answered vehemently, and we didn’t even need to wait until the end of the season. 9-1 Oregon was bumped ahead of 9-0 Florida State on the strength of its wins. Still a lot of football left to play, but it is exciting to know the voters won’t be hampered by a team’s record if its performance doesn’t hold water.
Virginia Tech +4.5
Duke -4.5
Unfortunately for the Hokies, their season has taken a wrong turn since the September upset win over Ohio State. Since that game, Virginia Tech is 2-5 and 1-4 in the ACC. Quarterback Michael Brewer looks out of sorts and overwhelmed without the aid of a competent running game. Duke has been trending in the opposite direction. After a September loss at Miami, the Blue Devils have won four straight. If Anthony Boone takes care of the football, this should be a simple enough cover at home.
Mississippi State +8.5
Alabama -8.5
This line makes no sense. Alabama barely squeaks by LSU and then is giving more than a touchdown against the number one team in the country? The only explanation here is that the nation at large (i.e. the opposite of the sharps) still loves Bama. It’s only logical since the Crimson Tide has been so dominant for a few years now. I’ll bite and take the extra points the lines-makers are forcing onto Mississippi State’s side.
Utah +7.5
Stanford -7.5
Much in the same manner that Alabama is giving too many points to MSU because the common man bettor hasn’t adjusted, so too is Stanford giving too many points here to Utah. Utah is the better football team. If the game was being played at a neutral site, the Utes should be favored. Even still, Utah already has notched road wins over Michigan, UCLA and Oregon State, and narrowly lost at Arizona State in overtime. Both teams got handled by Oregon in their most recent contests, so nothing can be gleaned from that other than the fact that the Ducks are rolling. Stanford doesn’t really even have a benchmark win to its name this entire season. This line should be much closer to even odds.
Auburn +2.5
Georgia -2.5
Let me get this straight. Auburn, the former number three team in the country, loses a wild squeaker to Texas A&M and is now an underdog against the Georgia Bulldogs? The Tigers defense has admittedly been bad since its first game of October, well over a month ago, but Georgia seems like a poor man’s version of Auburn at this point. Neither team plays defense; neither team throws the ball well; both rely heavily on the running game. The only difference is Auburn’s is better. Todd Gurley’s return shouldn’t be worth this much on the spread.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 20-18
