Betting Turf: College Football Futures
The first ever College Football Playoff crowned its first ever national champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Because of the talent returning on this team, OSU enters the offseason as the favorite to win it all again in 2016, at least according to early Futures odds from Vegas.
Ohio State is 9/2 right now to win the title, meaning if you wagered $100, you could win $450 on top of your stake if it comes to fruition. Betting on a staple like this, or Alabama at 8/1 or even Michigan State at 20/1, aren’t awful moves. However, what the Buckeyes just proved is that preseason favorites (or even favorites after the conference championships are played) aren’t necessarily the way to go. The odds don’t do gamblers any favors.
All you want is a shot at a playoff berth. Given that shot, any team can win it all. Therefore, the best bets to win next year’s CFP are further down the list, where there is some greater value to glean from the odds.
In the post-hype sleeper category, Ole Miss is intriguing. Sure, it will have to replace Bo Wallace at quarterback, but much of that dominating defense is returning, as are many of the skill players. At 25/1, you can do worse than Mississippi.
In terms of legit sleepers, look no further than Arizona State at 50/1. Its quarterback is also out the door but, unlike the Rebels, ASU has a clear replacement already in house in Mike Bercovici. He took over as an injury replacement for Taylor Kelly in a few games this past season and was magnificent.
As for teams getting odds in the triple digits, all of the following are incredibly enticing for sheer value:
Miami Hurricanes: 100/1
Virginia Tech Hokies: 100/1
Missouri Tigers: 100/1
Texas A&M Aggies: 100/1
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 300/1
How hard would it be to drop a piddling ten bucks on each of these long shots and rake in a cool grand if one hit (or way more if that one is Minnesota)?
For Miami, although quarterback play in college isn’t as important as at the next level, the Hurricanes could have one of the best young QBs in the nation. A bet on Miami would be a bet on Brad Kaaya taking that next step.
Virginia Tech will be returning its QB but will also be returning nearly everyone in the backfield after the unit was decimated by injury last year. The defense is always there. It seems like one time out of 100 a healthy offense in Blacksburg could win the title.
Missouri and Texas A&M already had good partial seasons in 2014; Missouri finished strong and A&M started strong. Putting together full years would have both in the title mix coming out of the SEC.
As for Minnesota, 300/1 odds are just ridiculous. This team finished ranked in the top 25 prior to bowl season. Its one-dimensional offense needs tweaking, but everyone has things to improve upon. There is no better way to spend a few dollars than a plausible long shot like this.
