Two Week 7 College Football Predictions
Florida State has its biggest game of the season when they take on No. 2 Clemson this week. Meanwhile, their in-state rivals, the Florida Gators unbeaten season is on the line as they take on No. 5 LSU.
The NCAA football odds have the Clemson Tigers listed as massive favorites over the Florida State Seminoles. But can Clemson really cover a 27 point spread?
Florida State at Clemson Preview
Some computer models are predicting the score to be 52 to 13 in favor of the Clemson Tigers. But after watching them struggle against the University of North Carolina, will that be the case? It’s tough to say. The media was all over Clemson for nearly going into overtime against the Tarheels, saying that the improvement had to be grassroots, coming from the players over the next couple of weeks. And two weeks they have had. The Tigers are coming off their BYE week and have surely thought long and hard about their physical and mental toughness after getting so sorely tested by UNC.
Offensively speaking, this teams are not too far apart when it comes to their ability to put points on the board. Clemson is averaging 38 points per game and FSU is averaging 33. However, a disparity starts to show when we look at their home vs. away numbers. The Tigers are putting up just under 43 per game while at home, and the Seminoles struggle a bit while out on the road, averaging just 24 points per game. But this is just a 19 point difference. Why 27? The answer lies in the defenses. Even putting up 33 points per game, Florida State’s soft defense, makes winning difficult. They are allowing 29.6 points per game overall, and a horrendous 31 points per game on the highway. Meanwhile, Clemson has the ninth-best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 12 per game overall. And they don’t differ much at home, slightly improving on that stat to 11.33 per game in Memorial Stadium.
So what will happen? Florida State is missing DE, Janarius Robinson for the entire first half due to suspension for ‘targeting’ this will make their butter-soft D even softer. But on the Clemson side, Trevor Lawrence has a stinger to the shoulder and although he’s probable, he’s probably not going to be 100 percent.
I predict that Clemson blows FSU out of the water on Saturday, but I’m not sure if it will be by more than 27 points.
Florida vs. LSU
This one is going to be closer than people think. The odds show the Gators to be nearly two-touchdown underdogs, but the Gators are 6-0 and just played tough as nails against Auburn, giving the Tigers their first loss of the season. This isn’t some scrub team playing the No. 5 ranked LSU. Florida is currently No. 7 on the AP polls so we have a top-ten showdown on our hands here.
The big number is due to LSU’s insane offense which is No. 1 in Division 1 ball. They are putting up 54.6 points per game overall and 54 per game at home. When we look at Florida’s 32.3 points per game and 26.5 on the road, it becomes abundantly clear as to why LSU is a double-digit favorite.
But Florida only allows around 20 points per game on the road, so LSU will meet a stout defense that will hamper their non-stop scoring. That said, LSU only allows 20 points per game as well … and an incredible. 7-and-change while at home. But we should consider the level of competition that LSU has had in Tiger Stadium. Chattanooga … who managed to put up 10 points on LSU. Georgia Southern, who only got a field goal, drastically skewing this stat, Northwest State, and Utah State. NW State put up 14 on the Tigers but Utah State only managed six. The point is, LSU hasn’t played anyone at home yet so these home stats are not indicative of how they’ll play against a top-ten team. I mean, come on, three FCS games?
This will be a battle. Florida should keep this one within 13 points. Maybe even closer.
