I believe I’ve found a niche in the market looking at small school conferences only in college basketball. Giving attention to 4 to 5 games for this piece, I will do my best to breakdown each thought process per week.
As you all know, the lines only come out a day ahead of time so this write up will be featuring who I am looking at and why within the coming week. I hope to give you all an advantage and will provide more information on my Twitter for daily spreads, movements in lines, and my personal picks each night at the Twitter handle @PicksbyKY.
I hope you have a great college basketball season and wish you all the best of luck!
South Dakota State @ Akron, 11/7 TBA
People that follow college basketball know about South Dakota State because they win the Summit regular season title almost every year (They’ve won their regular season conference title seven out of the last eight years). Their ability to win in the regular season has led to them getting to the big dance in four of those eight years.
Looking at their team, I believe this is going to be a down 2022 by their standards. They have six incoming freshmen making up over half of their roster and they also lost their top three scorers, their top returning scorer in 2022 only having 9.6ppg in last year.
On the flip side Akron has 60.8% returning possession minutes, their starters consist of veterans (two seniors and three juniors) and have two players returning that posted double digit scoring last year. Senior guard Xavier Castaneda poured in 13.6ppg and shot 37.3% from the 3-point line, while Enrique Freeman (junior) had 13.2 points/game and 10.8 rebounds/game. They also have Northern Illinois transfer Trendon Hankerson (senior guard) who brings in 11.4 points/game.
I like Akron a lot in this game and would look at an opening line of around -2 in favor of Akron.
Valparaiso @ Toledo, 11/7 7:00 ET
Toledo is one of my favorite teams to watch going into 2022. They were 26-8 last year and are returning four of their top five scorers. Three of those scorers were in double digits (15ppg, 15ppg, and 12.7ppg) so they are returning a HEAP of points and 69.8% returning possession minutes.
A huge factor that a lot of people probably don’t pay attention to in Toledo is that their starters are relied on HEAVILY! Last year their 6th man only averaged 12.5 minutes/game. That 5th starting piece is projected to be a transfer in from Ball State, Tyler Cochran, a junior guard who orchestrated 11.6 points/game and had 5.6 rebounds/game in 2021. He also shot 37.1% from 3-point range so he is also a new perimeter threat.
The opening spread that releases will be something to watch because it’s going to be in the double-digit range and I’m looking for a line around Toledo -13.
Lipscomb @ South Dakota, 11/9 8:00 ET
I am incredibly high on a South Dakota squad this year that will have three seniors, one junior and one sophomore in their starting rotation. Of those five players, four of them are returning from last year and the one sophomore is a transfer from North Dakota, which gives us a great rating on him as they’re in the same conference.
The key to this team will be A.J. Plitzuweit, a sophmore guard who missed last year but was their best player the year before. He put up 19 points/game and 4.2 rebounds/game two years ago while shooting a ridiculous 43.3% from the 3-point line. The next three players returning all had double digit scoring at 15 points/game, 14.5 points/game, and 11.5 points/game. Sprinkle in the fact that their sophomore transfer Paul Bruns from North Dakota ALSO recorded double digit points at 14.8 points/game and 5.7 rebounds/game while also shooting 36.9% from deep and you are looking at a TON of points coming to this team for 2022.
I see this game around South Dakota -1.5 or -2 at open.
Texas – San Antonio @ Texas A&M CC, 11/11 8:00 ET
Texas A&M Corpus Christie is returning 65.5% possession minutes and three of their top scorers from last year. Not only do they have that, but their top seven players in 2022 consist of five seniors and two juniors. If there’s one thing I love in a team, its experience, especially with these smaller schools because they’ve played together so much, and no one pays attention to how important this is for the “less talented” teams.
Their top three scorers coming back are all seniors: Isaac Mushila, a forward who racked up 13.2 points/game and boarded 9.2 rebounds/game, Trevian Tennyson, a guard who scored 12 points/game and shot 36.8% from 3 and Terrion Murdix, a guard as well, posted 9.8 points/game, 4.3 rebounds/game and 3.9 assists/game in only 22.4 minutes/game and should see a large increase this year.
My guess is the line opening at around -7.5 in Texas A&M CC’s favor.
