Hope everyone enjoyed last week’s breakdowns, here we go with some analysis of a couple games I like for the second week in college basketball. Remember, some of the teams may play another game before any of these games below. I’m doing my best to guess spreads but because of this, a lot can change from game to game. Please follow @PicksbyKY on Twitter for daily picks where we are currently 5-2 +3.03U on the year!
Belmont @ Furman 11/11 6:00 pm
Belmont is in a transition year going from the Ohio Valley into the Missouri Valley for the first time. Last year they had three players in double digits and only one is returning in 2022, Ben Sheppard. They have FOUR new starters in their lineup. They did come out with a victory against an Ohio team by one but that doesn’t do much for me.
Furman has yet to play any D1 competition so this is considered their first game for myself. They’re returning 73.2% RPMS (returning possession minutes), their two top scorers, and those returning scorers are both seniors. Mike Bothwell rained in 36.2% from three averaging 15.7ppg/4rpg/3apg. Jalen Slawson, a forward, put up 14.5ppg/7.4rpg/3.7apg and shot 48.6% from the field. They also have a massive transfer in Carter Whitt who was ranked 79th out of high school but sat the bench at Wake Forest. Last but not least, junior Marcus Foster returns with his 8.5ppg and 5rpg.
Looking at Furman -6, above this and it gets a little dicey.
Pepperdine @ Cal State Fullerton 11/11 9:00 pm
Pepperdine has all the talent in the world this year. The reason I was hesitant to write about them in week one is because I trust Lorenzo Romar about as far as I can throw him as a head coach. If there were a stat for most underachieving coach per team talent, he may come in first.
That being said, the upside was real this week against a Rice team that isn’t supposed to be bad. In fact, in KenPom’s preseason ratings, Rice was 189 and Pepperdine was 193. They came out and torched them 106-67 which is a great sign that maybe this team’s roster can protect us from Romar’s coaching.
Four players scored in double digits Monday: Maxwell Lewis with 29, Houston Mallette with 22, Jevon Porter (you may know the name, MPJ’S little brother) had 16 and Mike Mitchell Jr. had 14. They also won the rebounding category 36-28 and forced two more turnovers than Rice.
Cal State Fullerton lost their three top scorers last year and didn’t have anyone of note that came into the fold this year. I think they’re just going to be drastically overmatched.
I see this spread opening up at Pepperdine -5 on the road and I’ll be taking it if so.
Stonehill @ Army 11/12 12:00 pm
Pretty simple write up for this game seeing as Stonehill is new to Division I and this will be their first Saturday on the road in a Division I environment at Army.
Army has two key pieces returning in Jalen Rucker (junior Guard 17.1ppg/3.1apg/3.3rpg and 36.8% from 3) and Charlie Peterson (junior Forward 8.2ppg/5.8rpg) which will be the core of this team. They’re also returning 68.8% of their minutes and their projected top seven are four juniors, one senior and two sophomores, who doesn’t love some veterans against a newbie in the league?
I see a line of Army -9, anything under 10 and I’m okay with it.
Binghamton @ Marist 11/12 5:00 pm
This will be a complete game of opposites and Marist will have a game under the belt playing American on Wednesday.
Marist has essentially nothing returning from last year, totaling 13.5% RPMS which is the lowest I’ve come across as far as the games I’ve looked at. Their top returning guy is sophomore Noah Harris who only averaged 20.6mpg and had 6.1ppg. Not only that but I don’t like the talent they’ve brought in at all because the MAAC is a step up for each of them. Kam Farris comes in from Robert Morris (9.2ppg/25.9mpg) and Stephane Ingo comes from Maine (7.3ppg/5.9 rpg NOT IMPRESSIVE for Maine). Other than that, they have a couple of lower division transfers, they may finish last in the MAAC.
On the complete flip side Binghamton has 67.3% RPMS, returning six seniors and one junior to round out their top seven. This includes 12.9ppg/11.2ppg/11ppg/7.9ppg/6.5ppg for their first five. They’ve played together, they know each other, and they’re a great look for this game.
My guess is Binghamton -3 on the road, all over this number.
Western Michigan @ Valparaiso 11/13 4:00 pm
Each of these teams will have one game under their belt going into Sunday and each have already been played. Western Michigan comes in at 252 in KenPom while Valparaiso is sitting at 218. Instead of talking about each game played, I’m going to analyze the teams themselves.
Valparaiso is returning two out of their three top scorers (Ben Krikke 14.2ppg/Kobe King 14ppg) but the rest of the team is going to be very raw as far as minutes. Quinton Green, a new comer from Div. II did put up twenty points in their blowout against Toledo.
Western Michigan on the other hand will have 63.1% RPMS including their stud guard Lamar Norman Jr. He averaged 19.8ppg/3.1rpg and shot 37.3% from three on NINE attempts per game (15 points in their first game). They return their 2nd leading scorer as well and have a nice piece coming in from Cal State Fullerton in Tray Maddox Jr. Overall, they have four out of five of their leading minutes per game players coming back and Maddox will plug right into the starting lineup. They put up a great game at Minnesota losing by one, 61-60.
Thinking this line lands around Valparaiso -4.
Good luck to everyone on this first weekend of college basketball and make sure to follow @PicksbyKY on Twitter for updated spreads and picks daily.
