With week ten in the books, I come into this week finally feeling decent about college basketball. It only took two months! Last week the article was 2-2 but I feel like we might have a good rest of the season after a couple of recovery weeks from my personal betting. I’ve started to take alt lines at plus money for each game, so if a team is favored -3, I take it to -4.5 and you usually you are looking at anywhere from +110 to +125. Only time will tell but so far this has been a great plan, I sit at +4.67U this week as I write this. Please see below my write ups for the upcoming week and enjoy the NFL playoffs this weekend as well.
Youngstown State @ Oakland 1/14 2pm CST
In a way this is a win/win situation for me, depending on Youngstown’s outcome from Thursday 1/12 against Detroit Mercy, because I have a +850 bet on Youngstown to win the Horizon. Unfortunately, they’re going up against a team that is on an absolute tear at the moment in Oakland.
When I took a look at Oakland preseason, I liked them a lot as far as talent but this issue was going to be all of their newcomers. I can’t make this up, my write up’s first line read: “This will be all about how quickly Coach Greg Kampe can get a team to mesh.” It looks like it took them approximately thirteen games to mesh because they came into Horizon play at 2-11, playing awful. But since conference play has started, they’re 4-0, beating Northern Kentucky (tied for conference lead at 5-1) on the road (very tough to go there) and a had another great win against Milwaukee (conference co-leaders) at home by TWENTY-TWO points.
Oakland also has a game at home against Robert Morris on Thursday so guessing this spread is a little difficult because I’m wondering exactly how much love they’re going to give to Oakland at home seeing as they were ranked worse than Robert Morris in KenPom yet were favored by six today, 1/12.
My guess is Oakland is still going to get a lot of lean here and to be honest, they’ve earned it. I would take Oakland all the way to +2, but I’m hoping to get a +4 number.
Chattanooga @ Samford 1/14 5pm CST
This is a team similar to Oakland currently in the Samford Bulldogs. They entered Southern conference play losing six straight, including horrific losses against South Carolina State and a non-division one school in Tennessee Southern. Since then, all they’ve done is win five straight conference games to sit atop the Southern at 5-0. This includes a road win at UNC Greensboro and a recent home domination over Wofford, winning by twenty-eight.
The key to Samford’s return to playing good basketball, was figuring out how to win without their leader and leading scorer in Ques Glover. Glover (13.8ppg) has been out since after the Louisiana Tech game which was the first of their seven-game skid. The two who have stepped up most are Logan Dye and Jermaine Marshall. Even more recently stepping up is a sophomore in A.J. Staton-Mccray.
The past five games Logan Dye has led Samford in scoring with 19.6 points per game which was a massive step up from his 10.8 before this stretch. Over those same five games he’s also shooting a ridiculous 57.2% from beyond the arc on twenty-three attempts. Marshall missed last game against Wofford but the four previous he had dumped in 15 points per game and 8.75 rebounds per game, helping to aide Dye on this winning streak.
They’ve also had a new guy in Staton-Mccray stepping up the past two games coming off seventeen points and sixteen points. He’s also averaging four rebounds per game in this stretch along with shooting 5/9 from three, a 55.5% clip.
I would take the Bulldogs all the way to -4 against Chattanooga who have struggled on the road as of recently.
North Texas @ FIU 1/16 6pm CST
I can’t believe these words are coming out of my mouth but it’s looking more and more like Florida International is not going to be a team you want to go on the road and play against. They just took Florida Atlantic to overtime (+11 spread) and ended up losing by four, previous to that they had just beaten Charlotte by two (+5.5) and UAB by 3 (+12) at home.
As far as spreads go, it’s probably good that they ended up losing to FAU last night as we should see a similar spread to that and the UAB game. I do think they’re going to get a look by Vegas books coming off this stretch. They’re led by Denver Jones who averages 19.6 points, 4 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game. Along with this he shoots a crazy 42.4% from deep.
I like FIU all the way to +8 here but we will see where this lands after three straight great games at home.
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky 1/16 6pm CST
Western Kentucky just won me money last night on an alt line of +9 from +10.5 AT UAB’s house. Not only did they cover but they won straight up, 80-78. There are three teams in conference USA where you’re going to see similar lines; UAB, North Texas, and Florida Atlantic are the best teams in Conference USA and, to be honest, it’s really not that close.
Lucky for us, Western Kentucky already played North Texas at home and was +4, which was a push for the bet, losing by four 70-66. Dayvion McKnight leads the way for the Hilltoppers at 17.6 points, 5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He is mister do it all but has two nice pieces in Emmanuel Akot and Jairus Hamilton who put up 11.3 and 10.3 points per game as well.
Florida Atlantic is a great team and I have made a lot of money off of them this year. But let’s be realistic, they haven’t lost since 11/11 and sit at 15-1 on the season. They’re due for a hiccup, already squeezing by the past four games by a TOTAL of fourteen points.
I think this will be around Western Kentucky +5 and I like this or better at home.
Goodluck to all of your sports gambling this weekend and as always please bet responsibly.
