SEC Football Week 10 Breakdown
Saturday, November 5
1st ranked Alabama vs. 2nd ranked LSU
“National Championship Play-In Game”
Let’s start with some numbers: Alabama and LSU rank one and two (in some order) in every college football poll. Alabama is first in the nation in scoring defense, giving up an absurd 6.8 points per game. LSU isn’t too shabby themselves in this department, ranking third nationally, allowing 11.5 points per game. The two rank exactly the same nationally (Alabama first and LSU third) in rushing defense as well. Again, in the category of absurd, Alabama has given up fewer than 45 rushing yards per contest. In pass efficiency defense, the Crimson Tide once again has the top spot in the nation. LSU, meanwhile, comes in fifth in the country. To round out the defensive metrics, Alabama is first overall in total defense, with LSU coming in fourth.
For clarification on these numbers, this is where Alabama and LSU rank in the entire nation, not in their conference. Comparing these two schools to the rest of their conference is like pitting your high school’s varsity against its JV.
Now if it looks like Alabama has the clear edge on defense that only tells half the story. They have played better so far yet LSU has played Oregon and West Virginia, two high-powered, out of conference foes that Alabama did not have on their schedule. Also, where LSU sits behind the Tide in every defensive stat, they rank well ahead of their conference rival in turnover margin on the year: a rather important piece of data. Where Alabama is simply competent, LSU excels, ranking second nationally. This, for no small part, is thanks to the Tigers’ all-world defensive back Tyrann Mathieu and his propensity for doing…well, everything.
If either of these schools have a weakness, it’s on the offensive side of the ball and yet, both rank in the top 12 in the country in scoring offense with over 39 points per game. Alabama relies on Heisman contender Trent Richardson to break off huge gains while quarterback A.J. McCarron plays the (dreaded?) role of game manager. LSU, on the other hand, spreads around their offensive wealth between multiple skill-position players and even multiple quarterbacks, with Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson factoring into game plans each week.
If there is an edge to be given here to either side, it has to go to Alabama for having home-field as well as the offensive go-to player in Richardson. There also must be a slight edge in ‘Bama’s favor for Nick Saban being just slightly saner than his counterpart Les Miles. Not that Miles is a crazy person but there is always a chance he will call a play confusing us of this notion.
In the end, whichever team wins can cruise to the National Championship in all likelihood. Although LSU would still have to face Arkansas and either team would need to play the SEC title game, this matchup Saturday is a national semi-final if there ever was one.
Other notable matchups:
Saturday, November 5
11th ranked South Carolina vs. 8th ranked Arkansas
You know how if there are two girls who are friends and one is a 10 and the other is a 7, there is no way that guys will flock to the 7 even though she is very good looking just because of how beautiful her friend is? USC versus Arkansas is the 7, on paper at least.
In reality, we are not sure whether South Carolina still warrants their high national ranking. The only game they have played without their star Marcus Lattimore was last week against a struggling Tennessee squad. It remains to be seen whether A) their defense can hold down the powerful Razorbacks offense and B) whether Carolina’s offense can even score enough to make it matter.
A win here for South Carolina would allow them to keep pace with Georgia, battling for the right to lose to either LSU or Alabama in the SEC Championship game. On the other side of the coin, an Arkansas win would propel them squarely into the conversation of a BCS bowl if, you know, they were allowed to make one. They do still play LSU to finish out the season but it is entirely possible the Razorbacks will end with a 10-2 record, ranking somewhere in the top 10 in the BCS with their only two losses all season coming against the first and second ranked teams and they will not be able to play in a BCS bowl.
In a twist of fate, it is also possible we will end with a three-way tie atop the SEC West division if LSU beats Alabama and then somehow loses to the Razorbacks but let’s cross that bridge when we get to it.
Games of no particular note or significance whatsoever:
Saturday, November 5
Vanderbilt vs. Florida
24th ranked Georgia vs. New Mexico State
Ole Miss vs. Kentucky
Tennessee vs. Middle Tennessee
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee-Martin
A couple remaining thoughts on the rest of these games: Florida is probably not very good even though people wanted to think they were. Georgia probably isn’t either, although that does not prevent them from holding a tie atop the SEC East right now thanks to a rather fortunate schedule. Somehow UGA is traversing the SEC this season without having to face its top three teams: Alabama, LSU or Arkansas.
