Betting Turf, By Ts
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using VegasInsider lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
But enough of the jargon and caveats. Let's get to it for weekday games of Week One of the 2013 season.
North Carolina +11.5
South Carolina -11.5
The first game of the season seems like it should be a bigger rivalry and deal than it is. South Carolina comes in as one of the best teams in the country, from the world's most powerful conference. UNC, on the other hand, is coming off of violations and sanctions and penalties up the wazoo. However, North Carolina has talent and pride. They will not get blown out and will cover the 11.5 point spread.
Southern California -21.5
Hawaii +21.5
Hawaii has shown flashes of greatness in years past. Unfortunately, this team does not resemble those teams. Besides, Southern Cal has some expectations this season and they will want to come out firing week one. Nothing would heat up Lane Kiffin's seat more than a lackluster performance in this situation. Expect the blowout.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stay-away
Tulsa +3.5
Bowling Green -3.5
This game opened with Tulsa being three point favorites. By game time, the spread will have shifted more than six points in the other direction. Unless Bowling Green is a national favorite that I wasn't aware of and had boat loads of fans shift this, something is amiss. Just stay away.
Check back in Friday for some more picks of the big games of this first Saturday of the college football season.
2013 Record Against the Spread - 0-0
Sure Thing Locks - 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week? - No
