Betting Turf, By Ts - Week 9 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
College football is officially the Fresh Prince of Bel Air. Its life has been flipped turned upside down. In the span of two weeks, 16 ranked teams have lost and seven top 10 teams have gone down. The SEC East is in shambles; the Big 12 is hopeless and Virginia Tech is the second best team in the ACC according to the BCS computers. Suddenly I don't feel so bad about going nearly winless these past two weeks.
Northwestern +3
Iowa -3
Northwestern is admittedly in a free-fall. They've lost three straight games and have failed to cover five straight weeks. But this is where the value comes in. Now they travel to a subpar Iowa team, getting three points. Could they lose again, like they did to Minnesota? Sure, of course; these are just kids after all. But remember, even if they have a repeat of the Minnesota game, we'll salvage a push.
Toledo +4
Bowling Green -4
While Northern Illinois is running away with all the MAC headlines, there are some other pretty good teams in this conference. In fact, three other teams besides NIU are undefeated in conference, with one of those being Bowling Green. While Toledo does not have any bad losses this season, they have yet to claim a really good win either. Expect Bowling Green to cover here at home.
Michigan State -11
Illinois +11
Illinois' season has taken a bad turn. While just a couple weeks ago, I was on the Illini bandwagon, they have been so thoroughly pummeled these past two games that even I cannot justify picking them again. And in comes Michigan State, a team with one of the best defenses in the country. Eleven is a high spread here, and I was tempted to try to involve MSU in a two-team teaser but I kicked the things for good...unless one really strikes my fancy.
Utah +6.5
USC -6.5
I am done getting burned by the Trojans. While Utah had an expected letdown game last week after beating Stanford the week before, the Utes should be back and ready to go against USC. And the Trojans are simply not a good football team this season, especially with the health of Marqise Lee up in the air.
Stanford -4.5
Oregon State +4.5
Oregon State is ranked more by default than because of their personal accomplishments. Meanwhile, Stanford bounced back after their lone loss with an impressive win over UCLA. The Cardinal were not going to go undefeated. It was a surprise who handed them their first loss but it doesn't mean they aren't any good anymore. And 4.5 points sort of implies as much.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Texas Tech +6.5
Oklahoma -6.5
The Red Raiders enter this game ranked 10th in the BCS. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is down at 15th. So why are the Sooners still favored by nearly a touchdown? Because no one knows what to make of Texas Tech just yet; not Vegas, not the public, no one. Before the lines came out, I was expecting something closer to a pick 'em here, at which point I would have picked OU. With the line at 6.5, it seems like a clear stay away.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 19-21
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Yes, but I'm not actually sure in which direction
