Betting Turf, By Ts - Week 10 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
While it is disconcerting to duck further under .500 passing the midpoint of the season, finding the right teams to bet on, even if it means taking some losses, is important. After all, the best teams in the country are not always the best teams against the spread. Case in point, 17 of the top 25 teams in the country play this weekend. None of them have more than two losses. However, against the spread, only two of those same teams have fewer than two losses: Missouri and Wisconsin, the latter of which is surprisingly undefeated ATS this season. In fact, Wisconsin is the only top 25 team playing this weekend that has a better record ATS than straightup. This little piece of information leads us to know that some losing teams are covering spreads at a much better pace than they are outright winning those same ballgames. So while knowing who is better is important, knowing who is good enough can be equally as useful.
Arizona State -11
Washington State +11
While Washington State is 6-2 this season against the spread, they have been blown out by everyone who is anyone in the Pac-12. Stanford beat them by 38 points; Oregon State beat them by 28 points; Oregon beat them by 24. Meanwhile, Arizona State has scored at least 28 in every game this season and has put up 50 four different times already. Although this line is a bit high, it is not high enough.
Northern Illinois -23
Massachusetts +23
Last week was the first time Massachusetts had scored more than 17 points all season. In fact, the 1-7 Minutemen have been held to single digits five times already this season. In comes Northern Illinois, a top 25 team in the country. Now NIU is undefeated but they have failed to cover a couple high lines already this season. Giving 23 on the road, could UMass easily grab a cheap, backdoor cover? Of course, but that is not something to bet on. Northern Illinois is at least three touchdowns better.
North Carolina -3.5
North Carolina State +3.5
North Carolina had temporarily ventured onto my Don't Bet list, of teams that could not be trusted. However, with three straight competitive performances in conference, they seem to have rebounded somewhere close to where we expected them to be at the beginning of the season. It doesn't hurt that they travel to face NC State, a team getting blown out by every FBS squad they face. Even Wake Forest beat them by more than two scores. With the way these two teams are trending, give the points.
Tennessee +11
Missouri -11
The trials of the poor and decrepit Tennessee Volunteers continue this week. For the uninformed who may not have noticed, Tennessee faces seven ranked teams in eight weeks here, with the Missouri contest being ranked team number six on that quest. While six of those come along because UT happened to have the deadliest SEC schedule possible, they also faced Oregon early in the year, and promptly got stomped. Now the Vols have managed to cover three of those games, and actually won one outright but Missouri is coming in angry after that devastating, come from behind victory by South Carolina last week. If they don't handle Tennessee here easily, they don't deserve to be a top 15 team.
Boise State -7
Colorado State +7
It worries me that this line opened at CSU +10 and has already been bet down to +7. But there is something off with this Boise State team, especially on the road, where the Broncos are just 1-3 so far this season. If Boise ends up winning by a little more than a touchdown, chalk it up to the public being on this too quickly and shrinking the line but I still feel more comfortable grabbing the points.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
USC +5
Oregon State -5
I really liked what I saw from Sean Mannion and the Beavers last week. Regrettably, I also liked what USC was able to do to Utah. Once again, the Trojans have struck me dumb. I have no idea what to make of them, any week, against any opponent. For fun, let's run through the trip they have taken us on this season. Game 1, as big favorites with big expectations, they fail to cover. Game 2, with us not believing they can be bad, they not only fail to cover, but lose outright. Game 3, after we gave up on them, they win big. Game 4, they manage to win but fail to cover, leaving us in the lurch again, until game 5, when they are underdogs but get absolutely smashed. Heading into game 6, when we're finally sure they aren't any good, they win and cover. Game 7 sees them as small dogs who we might feel comfortable backing but they lose and do not cover yet again. Leading to their last game where they won and covered comfortably yet again after a loss and failed cover the prior week. I'd like to think Oregon State could cover 5 at home but I just don't know. I am completely flummoxed by USC.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 21-24
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Only if they are masochists
