Betting Turf, By Ts - Week 14 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
Nearing the end of the regular season, we are above our 53% goal. In fact, we are edging ever closer to that 57% sharps mark here at The Betting Turf. A strong finish to the season would put us over the top, just as with many of these football teams. Rivalry Week is upon us. The Thanksgiving holiday has arrived. Many games will be played Thursday and Friday so pay careful attention. Also, don't be surprised if one of the BCS top three end up losing this week. I may have put the Teaser kibosh on them...
Mississippi -4.5
Mississippi State +4.5
Here are the four teams who have beaten Mississippi this season: Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M and Missouri. Beating everyone you should beat and losing to everyone better than you puts a team strictly in the category of average. So the LSU victory slots the Rebels somewhere just above average. Now here are MSU's losses: Alabama, Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU, Auburn and Oklahoma State. Are the Bulldogs actually any worse than Ole Miss or did they just have a tougher schedule? Both actually. They are worse than Ole Miss but also had a brutal schedule.
Texas Tech +4.5
Texas -4.5
Texas Tech started the season 7-0 and have lost their past four ballgames. So why the confidence in them on the road? More a pick against Texas, the Longhorns have not been impressive all year other than a couple wins against weak Big 12 teams. Texas Tech can claim the same success. Grab the points.
East Carolina +2.5
Marshall -2.5
I guess home field advantage still counts for something. It is the only plausible reason as to why Marshall would be favored here. There isn't anything in their resume to suggest they are better than ECU. Sure they took Virginia Tech to three overtimes but they actually ended up losing to the Hokies by more than ECU did. This game will be for the Conference USA East title, adding a bit of pressure I suppose. But both teams have upperclassman starting quarterbacks who shouldn't get flustered.
Iowa +2
Nebraska -2
There is no statistical reason to feel confident in Nebraska here. The Cornhuskers are an okay team with a legitimate strength (their rushing offense) and is playing at home. But Iowa has shown a pretty good scoring defense and rush defense, and looks just as good on the road as at home. They have no go-to offensive weapons but should be able to keep the game close anyway. If the spread was at the magic three line, it would make less sense to back Nebraska, but call it a hunch that they can cover two points at home.
Rutgers -2.5
Connecticut +2.5
Connecticut wins their first game of the year last week and suddenly they are within a field goal of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights? While both teams are a putrid 3-9 ATS this season, Rutgers at least has something resembling a resume. They lost to Fresno State by one point in overtime; they beat an SEC team. UConn's biggest accomplishment before last week was that they only lost by three points to Michigan when everyone still thought Michigan was good.
Three-Team BCS Teaser Alert!
Florida State (-27 teased down to) -20.5
Florida +20.5
Ohio State (-14.5 teased down to) -8
Michigan +8
Alabama (-10 teased down to) -3.5
Auburn +3.5
The top three teams in the BCS standings, the last three undefeated teams from AQ conferences, the three legit stars of the season are all playing on the road against their biggest historic rivals...and I like all three to cover!
We've gone down the teaser road before; it is a tough road to traverse. However, all three of these teams are heavy favorites and, with the exception of Alabama, their rival is playing its worst football of the year. Florida and Michigan have never looked worse. With news that Jameis Winston should be okay to play for at least the foreseeable future, as it takes weeks to weed through details of cases like this, the only thing that even poses a slight worry is that Ohio State may only win by a touchdown and thus fail to cover. But even that seems unlikely after witnessing the Michigan Wolverines this past month.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Clemson +5
South Carolina -5
In the battle for supremacy of the state of South Carolina, it is too hard to tell who has an edge here. USC is at home but Clemson is getting five points. Carolina handed the Missouri Tigers their only loss of the year but they were also taken down by Tennessee. Clemson has looked dominant for a month now but this has come after they were swallowed up by Florida State in mid-October. If you're looking for a direction to lean, it's technically possible Clemson is the third best team in the nation. Their only loss is to FSU. A ceiling like that does not exist with South Carolina.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 38-30
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Clemson and South Carolina fans will bet on their teams in this game no matter what the spread is
