Betting Turf - Week 2 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
It was a great first weekend to the college football season. Not on the field of course, where seemingly every game was a monstrous blowout. But at the Betting Turf, things went well week one as we started the season a perfect 3-0 ATS.
This week, the matchups pick up slightly, although those cupcake out-of-conference pairings still run rampant. Alabama is favored by more than 40; Auburn, Oklahoma, UCLA and even Arizona State are all giving at least three touchdowns. No thank you.
Virginia Tech +11
Ohio State -11
An impressive first week for Ohio State’s offense doesn’t mask the fact that this team is without its very best player. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, the Virginia Tech Hokies come into this game with a defense capable of exploiting such a shortcoming. Now the VT offense is inexperienced and should struggle mightily in this game. Just a score or two though should keep the Hokies within double digits and allow them to cover the spread.
USC +2.5
Stanford -2.5
I am not quite ready to declare the USC Trojans fully back to their early days of dominance. To win on the road at Stanford takes a special football team. USC has the talent certainly to pull off such a victory, but the Cardinal was 7-0 at home last year. It also may have revenge on its mind. A 20-17 loss at USC was perhaps the only thing that kept Stanford out of the national championship. With a no-nonsense approach to the game, Stanford wins by at least a measly field goal.
Michigan +3.5
Notre Dame -3.5
Just as I’m not quite ready to declare USC back, Notre Dame is in the same boat. If the Fighting Irish were facing Stanford on the road, I’d also pick them to lose. However, they are not. Instead, ND is playing at home against, for lack of a better term, an under-statured Michigan club. The Wolverines don’t have the horses to win this one outright. And one of the basic beliefs in gambling is if you don’t think a team can win outright, don’t pick them to cover a small spread. There is too narrow a window to hit.
East Carolina +16.5
South Carolina -16.5
The hardest thing to do when picking games early in the year is to NOT react too much to previous week’s results. South Carolina looked horrendous week one against Texas A&M. There is no denying that. But this is still the same club that voters thought warranted a top 10 preseason ranking. One outcome doesn’t change that. While the rest of the nation overcompensates to USC’s week one, pump the brakes a little and expect a bounce-back performance out of Mike Davis and company. Of course, if they lay another egg, there is no spread high enough to feel good about taking them week three against Georgia!
2014 Record Against the Spread: 3-0
