Betting Turf - Week 5 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
Timing is of the utmost importance when selecting games against the spread. Last week, the Florida State – Clemson game was a perfect example of this. If a bettor had gone into the week liking Florida State, they may have felt inclined to grab FSU -20 early in the week as soon as the spread came out. They may have felt as though the spread would only increase as the game approached since people would bet on the number one team in the country. Or, a Clemson backer may have pounced on +20 thinking the public would even out a game between two ACC powers.
However, news broke Wednesday that changed the game entirely, and then the story changed again later in the week. The first-half suspension and ultimately entire-game suspension of Seminole quarterback Jameis Winston flipped the script on this contest. The spread of the game dropped an uncanny 10 points in three days.
Although the actual game’s final score was closer than the spread got, grabbing Clemson earlier in the week as soon as news broke gave bettors an added edge, an extra 10 points just because of timing.
Florida State -19
NC State +19
Jameis Winston will be back on the field this Saturday. He will be looking to make a statement as well. His team almost lost last week and fell out of the playoff picture because of his off-field stupidity. There are few things that work as better motivators than proving people wrong. Winston will want to come out and prove this is the country’s best team with him behind center. It doesn’t hurt that this doubles as NC State’s first major test of the young season.
Wyoming +31
Michigan State -31
I usually steer clear of these large spreads early in the season. It is hard to predict just how long the favorite will play hard for. However, Michigan State is coming off a week in which it easily covered a 43.5 point spread, and the Spartans are weaseling their way into playoff consideration a little under the radar. Meanwhile, Wyoming hasn’t managed more than 20 points in any game this season even though it’s won games against Montana, Air Force and Florida Atlantic. A rolling MSU hosting a touchdown-challenged Wyoming is a recipe for a blowout.
Duke +7
Miami -7
Is there any evidence that Miami is a better football team than Duke, let alone seven points better? Sure, this will be Duke’s first major road test of the season, but the Blue Devils are led by a great head coach and experienced starting quarterback playing at the top of his game. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have lost both games this season where their opponent was worth anything. With the struggles of their quarterback, it will take a superhuman effort from Duke Johnson for Miami to cover this spread.
Minnesota +12
Michigan -12
Here’s how bad things have gotten for the Michigan Wolverines. It seems downright ludicrous that they could be favored by 12 points over any Power Five foe. The Minnesota Golden Gophers can run the ball with the best of them. If they run all over Michigan and outright win, Brady Hoke should update his resume. Even if the Wolverines come out on top though, a double-digit victory seems like too much to ask from this team.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 9-5
