Betting Turf - Week 7 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
Gamblers and fans alike had to love week six of the college football season. Things started wild before the clock even struck noon on Saturday.
Oregon lost in a midweek upset, and BYU saw their star quarterback (and season) go down the very next night. Then the dominoes started to wiggle. A&M got handled at Mississippi State; Oklahoma got upset by TCU; Wisconsin and Stanford both fell. By late afternoon, the whole city was in ruins. Number three Alabama lost, USC went down on a Hail Mary, and UCLA’s shoddy offensive line did it in. By the end of the night, 11 ranked teams had fallen, some in rather dramatic fashion.
This weekend proved anyone can lose but also showed that none of these teams’ seasons are over concerning the playoff. With the way the landscape looks now, one loss shouldn’t be anything to fret over, unless you’re BYU of course.
West Virginia -6
Texas Tech +6
I’m not ready to say West Virginia is a great football team, but the Mountaineers are pretty solid and excel through the air. There is usually no such thing as a moral victory, but when considering picking games, that’s simply not the case. Relatively close losses to both Alabama and Oklahoma mean something. This game should be fun to watch, with both teams slinging the ball around the field, but Texas Tech is tailing in the wrong direction right now.
Illinois +25
Wisconsin -25
It remains to be seen whether Wisconsin will come out for this game angry or disappointed. Its loss last week at Northwestern was both unexpected and demoralizing. After all, it was Northwestern, and this was Wisconsin! I’m betting on the Badgers being angry. They are far from out of the Big Ten race; it was just their first conference game. Twenty-five points is often hard for a run-heavy team to cover. However, even most run-heavy teams don’t have a back like Melvin Gordon (averaging over eight yards per carry on the season), and the Illini have struggled to stop the run. That is not a good combination for the road team.
Penn State +2
Michigan -2
Once again, I must steel myself, calm the nerves and prepare to take an opponent of Michigan getting points while attempting not to laugh. Why is Michigan still being favored in these games? I’m no big fan of the Nittany Lions, but until Michigan proves it can beat someone better than Appalachian State, I am forced to bet against it. Now running back Derrick Green is out for the season. We’re approaching the point where the Wolverines need to be thought of as perhaps the worst team in this conference. Devin Funchess probably can’t wait to get out of town and move to tight end in the NFL.
LSU -1.5
Florida +1.5
Unsettled quarterback situations all around! LSU is bad; it just seems pretty evident Florida is worse. There is no shame in getting run over by the Auburn Tigers. That happens to the best of teams. But LSU has had no luck finding an offense all season. Both Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris saw time last week yet neither managed to move the football. LSU finished 0-13 on third-down conversions. Leonard Fournette and Kenny Hilliard should each have more than the 60+ touches they have right now. For Florida, a ten-point fourth-quarter comeback stemmed from the benching of quarterback Jeff Driskel and may have been the end of Driskel’s QB duties. The 10-9 comeback win actually managed to highlight the fact that the Gators couldn’t score a single point against Tennessee until there were 13 minutes remaining in the contest. With seven ranked SEC teams, it’s hard to fathom that these are actually two of the “others.”
2014 Record Against the Spread: 12-9
