Betting Turf - Week 8 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
It was a tough week last week. No, not for me. Sure, I went 1-3 ATS, but I’m talking about Jameis Winston and Florida State. Those boys had a tough week. I’m calling them boys because they are all, everyone involved, so clearly not men or adults or decent law-abiding citizens.
It now seems likely that Winston will get suspended for receiving money for autographs when he managed to stay on the field oh these many months through rape and sexual assault allegations. Reports are coming out that FSU police and university officials attempted to cover up the story and tampered with witnesses. I don’t have all the details; no one has all the details quite yet. The ironic idiocy of his pending autograph suspension almost overshadows all the (alleged) highly illegal activity that occurred in regards to his other incident.
Florida State will not be in any more Betting Turf picks this season, not because that is some moral high ground I’m taking. The action itself means nothing outside of this column. However, it is impossible to a) want to root for the Seminoles to win anything, and b) know how they are going to look and play week to week. That’s it for me.
Texas A&M +11.5
Alabama -11.5
This is too much, right? Can we agree this spread is too high? Texas A&M is not a great football team. Its early season top 10 ranking was premature by all accounts. However, the same can be said of Alabama. The Crimson Tide are shakier on the offensive side than we’ve seen in years. Against Arkansas last week, Alabama turned the ball over twice, failed on 12-of-16 third and fourth-down conversions and saw its quarterback complete just 11-of-21 passes. A&M can’t stop anybody. Fortunately for the Aggies, Alabama has been stopping itself and doesn’t seem capable of covering this high a spread.
Missouri +6
Florida -6
It’s impossible to explain Missouri’s performance last week other than to write it off as an aberration. The Tigers are not going to be that bad again. That’s why this opening line seems a bit high. The hate went too far to think Florida is roughly a touchdown better than Missouri. After all, the Gators are in the midst of a string of ugly performances dating back to early September. In last week’s pity loss, UF was 2-of-12 on third down, had a -3 turnover margin, and averaged fewer than four yards per carry on the ground. I don’t like the Gators giving this many points, even at home.
Kentucky +9.5
LSU -9.5
At least LSU did something right last week against Florida. The Tigers handed the ball off to Leonard Fournette a whopping 27 times. He answered the bell, rushing for 140 yards and two touchdowns. It was the first game he topped 20 touches all season, and he’s the only thing going well for the Tigers right now. It’s possible they aren’t a good football team. These things happen. LSU can’t be great every season. And Kentucky seems frisky! Break up the Wildcats! They are just half a game out of first place in the SEC East.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 13-12
